Evaluating the Evaluators: Julian Seinfeld’s Study of NBA Draft Outcomes

As Duke approaches the end of the semester, many seniors are preparing for graduation. For sociology major Julian Seinfeld, these last few weeks have also been about something else: finishing a research project that brings together his academic interests and long-standing passion for basketball.
Since January, Julian has been working on an independent study with Dr. Jen’nan Read, Chair of the Sociology Department. His project looks at how agents and administrators evaluate NBA players and whether current systems accurately predict long-term success. He built a dataset of 120 players drafted between 2021 and 2024, collecting information such as draft position, college performance, biographical details, and agency representation.

Seinfeld is going a step further by incorporating advanced metrics, like career plus-minus and post-rookie contract value to see how early evaluations hold up over time. “I wanted to look at what happens after those first four years,” Seinfeld explains. “Not just how players are drafted, but how they develop.”

Initially unsure whether the project would lean qualitative or quantitative, Seinfeld realized early on that the data held immense potential. “Once we started digging into the dataset, it kept expanding,” he says. “I wasn’t expecting it to become this detailed.”

Julian credits the Sociology Department with giving him the space to shape the project around his interests. “One of the best things about sociology at Duke is how flexible, broad and empowering it is,” he says. “The professors here encouraged me to follow what I’m passionate about. They told me, ‘Do something that helps you grow into your future.’ That stuck with me.” 

One of the best things about sociology at Duke is how flexible, broad and empowering it is. The professors here encouraged me to follow what I’m passionate about.

Working with Dr. Read helped bring that vision into focus. “She really supported me from day one,” Julian says. “She’s helped me stay on track, think through ideas, and dig deeper at every stage. It’s been a real collaboration.”

One of the more challenging aspects of the project has been dealing with live, constantly changing data. “Stats update weekly, and the NBA moves fast,” he says. “So, I’ve had to learn how to stay flexible to make adjustments without losing the overall structure of the work.”

Julian’s interest in basketball isn’t new rather it’s something he’s been passionate about since before college. His hope is to work in sports management, and this project gives him a starting point he can build on. “It’s something I’ll keep updating after graduation,” he says. “I want to keep refining it as more data comes in. It’s been helpful to think about how I might use this in a future role.” For Julian, the goal isn’t to predict the future of every player. It’s to better understand how early decisions are made and whether there’s room to improve how talent is evaluated.

While the project is still in progress, it already reflects the kind of work that can come from a department that values personal interest, real-world relevance, and mentorship. It also shows how sociology can connect to fields that may seem far removed at first glance, like the NBA draft.