P. J. Eric Stallard
  • P. J. Eric Stallard

  • Research Professor and A.S.A, M.A.A.A., F.C.A.
  • Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke
  • Campus Box 90408
  • Phone: 919 668 2724 (North Carolina)
  • Fax: (919) 684-3861
  • Specialties

    • Actuarial Science
  • Research Description

    Professor Stallard’s research expertise includes modeling and forecasting for medical demography and health/LTC actuarial practice:
    • He was a 1996 winner of the National Institute on Aging James A. Shannon Director’s Award for his research proposal Forecasting Models for Acute and Long-Term Care.
    • In 1999, he won first prize for the best conference paper for his paper Retirement and health: Estimates and projections of acute and long-term care needs and expenditures of the U.S. elderly population, presented at the Society of Actuaries’ Retirement Needs Framework Conference.
    • In 2008, he won the Society of Actuaries’ Edward A. Lew Award for the Best Paper in Modeling Research for his paper Estimates of the incidence, prevalence, duration, intensity and cost of chronic disability among the U.S. elderly.
    • In 2010, he was nominated jointly by the American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries for Presidential Appointment to the CLASS Independence Advisory Council.
    • In 2011, he was appointed to the National Academy of Sciences/Institute of Medicine Panel on Measuring Medical Care Risk in Conjunction with the New Supplemental Income Poverty Measure.
    • Professor Stallard’s 1984 book Recent Trends in Mortality Analysis, published by Academic Press with co-author K.G. Manton, provided in-depth and comprehensive models for the analysis of underlying and multiple cause mortality data. His 2005 book Forecasting Product Liability Claims: Epidemiology and Modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case, published by Springer with co-authors K.G. Manton and J.E. Cohen, covers the full range of epidemiological, demographic, and actuarial issues in asbestos-related disease and mortality. His six other books/monographs, 112 scientific articles, and 66 actuarial publications span a broad range of topics in medical demography and health/LTC actuarial practice.
  • Areas of Interest

    Medical Demography
    Health/LTC Actuarial Practice
    Social Insurance-Medicare and Social Security
  • Selected Publications

      • Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, and Joel E. Cohen.
      • (2005).
      • Forecasting Product Liability Claims: Epidemiology and Modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case.
      • Springer Verlag, New York.
      • James W. Vaupel, Kenneth G. Manton, and Eric Stallard.
      • (1979).
      • The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.
      • Demography
      • ,
      • 16
      • (3)
      • ,
      • 439-454.
      • Kenneth G. Manton, Max A. Woodbury, Eric Stallard, Wilson B. Riggan, John P. Creason, and Alvin C. Pellom.
      • (1989).
      • Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates.
      • Journal of the American Statistical Association
      • ,
      • 84
      • (407)
      • ,
      • 637-650.
      • Kenneth G. Manton, Larry S. Corder, and Eric Stallard.
      • (1993).
      • Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey.
      • Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences
      • ,
      • 48
      • (4)
      • ,
      • S153-S166.
      • Eric Stallard and Robert K. Yee.
      • (March, 2000).
      • Non-Insured Home and Community-Based Long-Term Care Incidence and Continuance Tables.
      • Actuarial Report issued by the Long-Term Care Experience Committee
      • Schaumburg, IL:
      • Society of Actuaries.
      • Dan L. Crippen, Mary C. Daly, Robert J. Gordon, William Hsiao, Steve Lieberman, Deborah J. Lucas, Jeffrey S. Passel, Beth Soldo, P.J. Eric Stallard, and Shripad Tuljapurkar.
      • (2007).
      • 2007 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods: Report to the Social Security Advisory Board.
      • Washington, DC:
      • Social Security Advisory Board.
      • Kenneth G. Manton, Larry S. Corder, and Eric Stallard.
      • (1997).
      • Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations 1982-1994.
      • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA
      • ,
      • 94
      • ,
      • 2593-2598.
      • Kenneth G. Manton and Eric Stallard.
      • (1988).
      • Chronic Disease Modelling.
      • London, Great Britain:
      • Charles Griffin Limited.
      • Eric Stallard.
      • (2011).
      • Estimates of the incidence, prevalence, duration, intensity and cost of chronic disability among the U.S. elderly.
      • North American Actuarial Journal
      • ,
      • 15
      • (1)
      • ,
      • 32–58.
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